Tuesday, November 23, 2010
CRIER'S CORNER - THE CRIER/SR CREW - NOVEMBER 23, 2010
Written by: The Crier
Date posted: 11/23/2010
CRIER'S BCS ELIMINATION TOURNAMENT:
Going into Playoff Week #8, the Crier’s playoff elimination tournament is still at six teams from the original 28 teams. Stanford, Boise State, and Wisconsin won last week, while Oregon, TCU, and Auburn were all idle.
Oregon and Stanford are still in the lead to meet in the Crier’s version of the BCS Championship Game, which would be a rematch of an earlier season game won by Oregon on their field. Boise State moved ahead of Auburn in the standings with last week’s win over Fresno State.
The purpose of these rankings is to determine the top two teams standing at the end of play on December 4. Hopefully, the BCS people will have the same two teams as "The Crier" for their championship game when all is said and done.
Below is this week’s rankings and each team’s opponent:
Rank – Team – Record – This Week’s Game
1 Oregon (10-0) vs. Arizona
2 Stanford (10-1) vs. Oregon State
3 TCU (11-0) at New Mexico
4 Boise State (10-0) at Nevada
5 Auburn (11-0) at Alabama
6 Wisconsin (10-1) vs. Northwestern
Last week, in the Crier’s BCS Game of the Week, Boise State beat Fresno State, 51-0, improving the Crier’s record in tournament games to 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS.
There are no head-to-head match-ups this week of the teams remaining in the tournament this week. The Crier's BCS Game of the Week is below.
CRIER'S BCS GAME OF THE WEEK:
OREGON* (-19.5) over ARIZONA
Arizona is like that flashy sports car with the sweet rims, fresh paint job, new spoiler. But with a 225-horsepower engine. They simply lack the “oomph.” Well, Oregon’s offensive line certainly brings it – making plenty of space for RB James and a band of speedy mates. On defense, Oregon is just as quick and will make life extremely difficult for Wildcat QB Foles. The visiting QB completes a lot of throws, but those quick outs will equate to a bunch of 2 and 3-yard tosses given the Duck DBs’ closing speed. Sure would be nice to pull off a win in Autzen, but the ’Zona coaches ain’t dumb. Their Rose Bowl dream vanished earlier this month and there’s a winnable rivalry game next week. OREGON, 45-17.
LOCAL GAMES OF INTEREST
Last week, local games were 6-2 SU (72-25 cumulative) and 5-3 ATS (63-32-2 cumulative), although they were not meant to be wagered on. They were for reading purposes only.
For reading purposes only, below are the SR Crew write-ups on this week's games of local interest:
THURSDAY’S (THANKSGIVING DAY) GAMES:
NEW ORLEANS at DALLAS*
It’s becoming obvious that Cowboys’ new head coach Jason Garrett, under whom Dallas is now 2-0 SU and ATS, sabotaged Wade Phillips for the job. For that, he’ll be dealt with in another life. For now, the plays he was saving to leverage his promotion and future salary increase are good enough to put points on the board against any NFL defense, especially one whose forte is not necessarily tackling, but jarring balls loose and stepping in front of passes.
The Saints have revenge for a 28-14 home loss last season which occurred on a short week, when Dallas was desperate and the Saints were 13-0 SU, could afford to lose, and may have been flat. The Cowboys jumped to a 14-0 lead in two possessions, then cruised. The 7-3 SU Saints and their likers may be thinking that a different mindset makes the difference in the match-up, but, as mentioned earlier in the season in a Midweek Update Best Bet win with Atlanta against New Orleans, the Saints have failed vs. the spread in all recent short-week situations (0-4 ATS). DALLAS, 27-24.
TEXAS A&M at TEXAS*
The Longhorn defense is solid, but has been overshadowed by the absolute horror show that’s been the Texas offense. Good timing for the home team though – as they just dusted Florida Atlantic while A&M comes off of a late-night physical 9-6 home win vs. Nebraska. A&M is the better team, but watch for the UT front 7 to get pressure on the Aggie QB’s and for the secondary to nab a few picks that create short fields for a zone read heavy Texas offense. TEXAS, 24-21.
BOISE STATE at NEVADA*
Boise is team 3-D. They never come out flat. Nevada has the athletes to push ‘em a bit as they average approximately 7.3 yards per play, but in the lone loss to Hawaii the Pack picked up just 4.2 yards per play. That was Hawaii – a team with good athletes but not a defensive heavyweight. The Broncos are the nation’s leaders in giving up an average of under 4 yards per snap. Nevada isn’t used to getting hit in the mouth. They will this week, and they won’t get up. BOISE STATE, 44-23.
UAB at RICE*
Off a trophy-win against Memphis (for real). UAB’s 7-loss team takes to the road and their defense won’t be able to get off the field for QB Bryan Ellis to get enough shots at Rice’s defense. If coach Calloway wants to give prior #1 QB Isabelle some chances for the future, that won’t help the UAB cause. The Rice offense is finally hitting its stride, which might have come sooner if the coaching staff had been able to manage the quarterback position better. RICE, 35-34.
OKLAHOMA at OKLAHOMA STATE*
Oklahoma State could be thinking, “We have seen the enemy, and he is us,” after the Sooners unveiled a devious, Cowboy-like diamond backfield against Baylor. After pushing Kansas aside last Saturday, OSU head coach Mike Gundy said “the sky’s the limit” for his team. Objects in mirror are closer than they appear. Oklahoma’s downfield pass offense and defense’s ability to make some stops – an elite-level combination Oklahoma State hasn’t faced – is an ominous ceiling. Sooners’ motivation hinges on Texas beating A&M Thursday (good). If A&M wins, not so good. OKLAHOMA STATE, 27-26.
TCU at NEW MEXICO*
Next on TBS is “The Good, the Bad, and it will be Ugly.” Just remember – there are two types of teams in this game: those who are undefeated and vying for a national title and those whose average margin of defeat is 26 points in a mid-level conference. After TCU lost ground by beating a solid SDSU team by 5 points two weeks ago, you think they might turn it up a notch here? TCU, 44-3.
HOUSTON at TEXAS TECH*
Houston has been knocked out by an average score of 39-19 when stepping up in weight class this year. Look for more of the same here as they get a revenge-minded Red Raider team that has six wins, but that can lock up that bowl bid with a win. Cougars will be able to score some points and they’re likely home for the holidays so there’s nothing to lose, but Tech is bigger, faster, stronger. TEXAS TECH, 45-30.
BAYLOR’S REGULAR SEASON (7-5) IS OVER.
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON*
The lesson of the 2010 season for the Houston Texans has been the defense’s inability to finish games. Both teams now stand on the precipice of playoff irrelevance after close losses last week, and Tennessee will be turning over quarterback duties to rookie Rusty Smith, or Kerry Collins, if health permits.
It’s probably good for the Titans to hit the road this week, as poorly as they played last week, earning the very vocal ire of their fans for disastrous play-calling and execution. Vince Young has been exiled by Jeff Fisher, and Randy Moss has yet to make an impact through his pass catching, but don’t ignore this very important statistic: since acquiring Moss, Chris Johnson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, versus 4.05 pre-Moss. It’s a statistic that will play a huge role down the stretch, with the Titans sure to focus on pounding the ball with Johnson considering the pathetic state of their quarterback depth chart.
Tennessee is also 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five visits to Houston, and face a Texans team that gives up 108.3 yards per game on the ground, a figure sure to rise after this week’s battle. TENNESSEE, 20-19.
WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?
For those gambling "degenerates" that are interested, the “Millionaire” games will be released as part of Friday’s Peanut Gallery.
NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #12
In Week #12, the Crier excelled once again, as he went 17-7 ATS for a profit of a whopping 11.9 units. For the first dozen weeks of the season, the record is now 164-95 (over 63% for the mathematically-challenged) for a profit of 95 units.
By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.
Week #12 (using Crier’s lines):
Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score
Nov. 19 W Boise State* -30.5 Fresno State RP 59-20
Nov. 20 L Georgia Tech* -10.5 Duke BB 30-20
Nov. 20 L Ohio State Over 48 Iowa* BB 20+17=37
Nov. 20 W Oklahoma State Under 64.5 Kansas* RP 48+14=62
Nov. 20 W Northern Illinois -14.5 Ball State* RP 59-21
Nov. 20 W UTEP Over 58 Tulsa* RP 28+31=59
Nov. 20 W Eastern Michigan +7 Buffalo* RP 20-17
Nov. 20 W Illinois (N) -7.5 Northwestern RP 48-27
Nov. 20 W Colorado* +3 Kansas State RP 44-36
Nov. 20 W Southern Miss* -3.5 Houston BB 59-41
Nov. 20 L Nebraska -2.5 Texas A&M* RP 6-9
Nov. 20 W Mississippi +16.5 LSU* RP 36-43
Nov. 20 W Utah -2.5 San Diego State* BB 38-34
Nov. 20 L Troy +22 South Carolina* BB 24-69
Nov. 20 W Texas* -21.5 Florida Atlantic SBB 51-17
Nov. 20 L UL – Lafayette* +10 Florida International RP 17-38
Nov. 21 W Pittsburgh* -8 Oakland BB 35-3
Nov. 21 W Oakland Under 41 Pittsburgh* RP 3+35=38
Nov. 21 W Baltimore -12 Carolina* BB 37-13
Nov. 21 L Tennessee* -7 Washington BB 16-19
Nov. 21 W Buffalo +7 Cincinnati* RP 49-31
Nov. 21 W Jacksonville* -1 Cleveland RP 24-20
Nov. 21 W Kansas City* -9 Arizona BB 31-13
Nov. 21 L San Francisco* -3.5 Tampa Bay RP 0-21
* - Home team
N - Neutral site
SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)
Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)
NFL Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (1-1 = 50%; -.3 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (20-15 = 57.1%; +7 units)
Regular Plays: 3-1 = 75%; +1.9 units (28-17 = 62.2%; +9.3 units)
Week #12 Totals: 6-2 = 75%; +5.7 units (49-33 = 59.8%; +16 units)
College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (9-1 = 90%; +23.7 units)
Best Bets: 2-3 = 40%; -2.6 units (45-26 = 63.4%; +32.8 units)
Regular Plays: 8-2 = 80%; +5.8 units (61-35 = 63.5%: +22.5 units)
Week #12 Totals: 11-5 = 68.8%; +6.2 units (115-62 = 65.0%; +79 units)
Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS:
Super Best Bets: 1-0 = 100%; +3 units (10-2 = 83.3%; +23.4 units)
Best Bets: 5-4 = 55.6%; +1.2 units (65-41 = 61.3%; +39.8 units)
Regular Plays: 11-3 = 78.6%; +7.7 units (89-52 = 62.7%; +31.8 units)
Week #12 Totals: 17-7 = 70.8%; +11.9 units (164-95 = 63.3%; +95 units)
Yesterday’s Record ATS: 4-2
Cumulative Season Record ATS: 64-33
Today’s Action (for reading purposes only):
PHILADELPHIA (+2) over WASHINGTON*
Wizards were kind of lucky to beat Philly in D. C. earlier in the year when they gave up 50 points in the paint and lost the 4th quarter by a half-dozen points. The 76ers Thaddeus Young had a break-out game last week, but it was against the most anemic of squads, the Bucks. Philly has had 4 days to rest and got to expect Coach Collins was in their ear about letting John Wall go for 29, dish 13 assists and have 9 thefts in D.C.’s 11/2 win. PHILADELPHIA, 96 -92
COLLEGE HOOPS ACTION
VALPARAISO (+7) over OHIO*
Marked Bobcat expectations within MAC built into price. Brandon Wood leads invading senior backcourt which could keep this close. OHIO, 66-65.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE* (TOTAL UNDER 139)
Panthers have the depth WMU lacks. Cozy 3,500 Klotsche Center site shouldn’t hurt locals’ cause either, in a game that could be a low scorer. WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE, 62-52.
UTEP* (-10.5) over NEW MEXICO STATE
Ordinarily wouldn’t go overboard with big fave with two teams as familiar with each other as these two, but outmanned visitor appears to be having some internal issues. UTEP, 80-63.
KENTUCKY (+3) over WASHINGTON (LAHAINA HI)
Just a question of playing up to potential for Wildcats, who passed the tougher Monday-night test against Sooners. KENTUCKY, 78-72.
THE CRIER/SR CREW
Facebook Search: HMW Shelton