CRIER'S CORNER - THE CRIER/SR CREW - JANUARY 14, 2011

CRIER'S CORNER



Written by: The Crier/SR Crew
Date Posted: 1/14/2011

HOW THE CRIER'S DOING?




After 19 weeks the blog result ATS (excludes “pushes”) for the Crier is an overall 167-111 (8-2 last week).


That's 60% over a span of over 270 games for all the non-believers out there.


Below is the schedule for this weekend's NFL Playoffs:

MILLIONAIRE'S GAMES

 
 
SATURDAY'S GAMES, JANUARY 15


BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH* (TOTAL UNDER 37)


It’s the third meeting between the AFC North rivals this season and the 10th meeting in the last four seasons. They know each other well enough. Why get cute and expect the game to go Over the total when they have tended to play games where the offenses under-achieved compared to how they have performed against other opponents?

The Steelers had the excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger in the first meeting this season, a 17-13 loss. With Charlie Batch playing quarterback for them, they gained only 210 total yards of offense. But when Roethlisberger had been back for a while, the Steelers still gained only 288 total yards on offense in a game they won 13-10.

Meanwhile, Ravens’ running back Ray Rice’s two lowest rushing totals of the season both came against the Pittsburgh defense (20 yards, 32 yards). Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has called Rice’s number a total of only 17 times in the two meetings. However, fullback Le’Ron McClain is available again after missing the last meeting with an ankle injury. Although no running back has gained more than 87 rushing yards in a game against the Pittsburgh defense this season and they allowed only 62.8 rushing yards per outing, the Ravens still have to try to establish the run.

Cam Cameron has tried to let Joe Flacco’s arm carry the offense against the Steelers and most of the time, Flacco has been burned by a big boo-boo, losing fumbles and throwing interceptions. Some football writers are saying that Flacco is beginning to figure out the Steelers’ defense, using increased passing yardage as their reasoning. Believe it when the yardage begins translating into points. PITTSBURGH, 16-12.


GREEN BAY (+2.5) over ATLANTA*

 At the conclusion of their Week 13 regular season meeting, after the Falcons had improved their record to 9-2 SU and Green Bay fell to 7-4 SU in a 20-17 game won in the final :09, Falcons receiver Roddy White said: "I have no plans of going to Lambeau Field in January. I plan on staying right here and sleeping in my own bed in the playoffs."

Ah, but the football field is not a bed. You don’t lay on it. You play on it. Home field is only one advantage. What if the visitor has more advantages? What if the Packers get the ball first and score, instead of the way it was in the first meeting, when Atlanta took 5:29 for 11 offensive snaps and got a 38-yard field goal? What if the Falcons can’t cut it finely enough to score a touchdown on the last play of the first half, at the end of a 14-play, 80-yard drive in 7:29, the drive that followed Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ infamous lost fumble at the Falcons’ goal line?


Going into Green Bay’s “Best Bet” win at Philadelphia last Sunday, the world was saying, “Oh, the Packers can’t run the ball.” Then, naturally, the Packers showed a very effective Paul Hornung-Jim Taylor-Elijah Pitts backfield and gained 138 rushing yards against the Eagles. This has to be giving Atlanta’s defense some worries because the Falcons surrendered 418 yards to the Packers’ offense in the first meeting, 341 through the air, despite the fact that Green Bay wasn’t in panic mode and never trailed by more than a TD. In fact, both Packers’ touchdowns in the Week 13 game at Atlanta came on snaps with 5-receiver sets.


Atlanta’s 19-2 SU home record with Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback can be this week’s faulty, apples-and-oranges hat-hanger fake stat. As noted prior to the win by New Orleans on this field a few weeks ago, the Falcons last three games here have been won with :32, and :09 seconds left, and then lost. Ryan completed more than 90% of his passes against the Packers in Week 12 on throws of 14 yards or shorter.

Atlanta averaged 26 points per game this season, but the Packers held them to 20 points in their dome. Mike McCarthy has to like his chances of out-scoring them this time around because the Dom Capers-coordinated defense – as mentioned repeatedly here recently - continues to hold opposing teams to substantially fewer points than their scoring average. The Eagles were getting 27.5 ppg, but scored only 16 against the Packers. GREEN BAY, 30-20.




NON-MILLIONAIRE NFL PLAYOFF GAMES

SUNDAY'S GAMES, JANUARY 16


SEATTLE at CHICAGO*


The last time these teams met in the playoffs was the season in which the Bears eventually went to the Super Bowl vs. Indianapolis, and we can remember a Best Bet winner on Seattle as a +7.5 road underdog in that game, which the Seahawks lost by 3 points in overtime.

The Chicago defensive players were very worried going into that game because Matt Hasselbeck and the in-rhythm, quick-pass West Coast offense was a tough match-up for their Cover-2 defense that has been the Bears’ staple during the Lovie Smith regime. Although Cover-2 was designed to combat West Coast offenses when they were in their heyday, it was more of a contain thing, not a shutdown, and the scheme favored by Chicago leaves a lot of soft zones open that can be exploited by experienced quarterbacks with accurate arms, like Hasselbeck.


Of course, it helps to have a running game to support the pass, especially when you’re playing in the northern Midwest near a lake in January. The Seahawks really don’t have much of a running game. Marshawn Lynch looked like a superstar late in a ballgame against a Saints’ defense known more for hitting and stripping than it is for tackling. The Bears defensive players are not Matadors. When they hit, they usually make it stick.

But still, you really have to worry about laying two scores with the Bears, despite going against Pete the Cheat and the Seahawks team we’ve loved to dislike, normally with good results. Pete the Cheat is such a liar that his decree of “we’re going to run the ball and play great defense” has morphed into the opposite, where Seattle now passes the ball and plays lousy defense.

But the teams have met once in each of the last two seasons. Seattle’s offense out-snapped Chicago’s 75-57 last season, 71-59 this season, and out-gained the Bears by 28 and 46 total yards in those games. A +10 underdog that can hog the football (Chicago’s defense allowed 23 pass completions per game this season, fourth-most in the NFL) seems like a high-percentage play to cover the spread, all other things being close to equal.

With the Bears, all other things usually favor them, with Devin Hester returns, blocked kicks, and the like. But those things are never guarantees, and the sack count in Seattle’s Week 6 win this season was 6-0, favoring Seattle. Chicago QB Jay Cutler losing -44 yards on those takedowns. Clearly, the Bears have some work to do. CHICAGO, 27-20.


NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND*


The 45-3 Monday Night Football blowout win by the Patriots over the Jets in Week 13 sticks in the mind of many football followers and bettors. “How do the Jets make up enough of that 42-point gap?” At the risk of sounding slightly hostile, we’ll answer a question with a question: Wouldn’t the Pats have been better served to bust out all those relatively new, quick-hitting offensive wrinkles in this game, instead of giving the Jets’ defense an embarrassing sampling of it in November?


In the nationally televised blowout defeat, the Jets’ defense got caught in Rex Ryan’s least favorite image - flat-footed - but at least their defensive staff and personnel have tape of the carnage to help them be on their toes for it this time around. They also have time to get their safeties straightened out after Jim Leonard – still absent – was a very late scratch that week due to an injury suffered in practice. Leonard was the defensive captain and called most of that unit’s signals, a possible hidden cause for that night’s breakdown.


Coming off a string of regular-season blowout victories, the Patriots seem set up for a similar run to the Super Bowl like they were in 2007 – when they were 0-2 ATS in the AFC playoff games against Jacksonville and San Diego before losing the Super Bowl outright as -12 chalk. We’ve always said that after the New England franchise adopted an offensive identity, Bill Belichick’s value as a post-season betting tool was lost.

You wanted him as an underdog with a great defense against hyped offenses, not as the leader of the team with the hyped offense, sent off as the favorite against better defenses, while his own defense has some problems getting off the field. With their one-and-done home loss vs. Baltimore in the playoffs last season, Belichick backers are on an 0-4 ATS run in the post-season.

The Patriots have a ridiculously over-the-top Turnover Ratio of +27 this season. The Jets are +4. They say turnovers are worth four points, which would give New England a difference of 23 x 4 = 92, which, divided by 16 games is 5.75 points per game. If the Jets can play them even in turnovers – not a given, but not impossible – then, theoretically, the Patriots are overvalued by nearly six points. NEW ENGLAND, 23-20.


NEWSLETTER RESULTS - Week #19



Week #19 resulted in a 5.7 unit profit for the Crier, as he went 6-2 ATS. For the first 19 weeks of the season, the record is now 214-136 (over 61% for the mathematically-challenged) for a cumulative profit of 108.1 units.


By playing the newsletter games, your results should have been the same as or close to the Crier's results depending on your lines compared to the Crier's with maybe a 5-10% margin of difference, either way.


For those smart and lucky ones who have been receiving and following the Crier's selections, NFL Playoff coverage will continue through the Super Bowl. And for those of you who have been getting basketball action through daily e-mails from the Crier, you're doubling your fun and your pleasure.


Good Luck, as we continue in the backstretch of the football season playing with a lot of "house money". Last week's newsletter results follow:

Week #19 (using Crier’s lines):



Date W/L Team Line Opponent Amt. Of Play Final Score


1/4 W Ohio State (N) -3.5 Arkansas RP 31-26
1/7 L Texas A&M (N) +2.5 LSU RP 24-41
1/8 W New Orleans Over 44.5 Seattle* RP 36+41=77
1/8 W NY Jets Under 45.5 Indianapolis* BB 17+16=33
1/9 W Baltimore -3 Kansas City* RP 30-7
1/9 W Green Bay +2.5 Philadelphia* BB 21-16
1/9 W Boston College (N) +7.5 Nevada BB 13-20
1/10 L Oregon (N) +2.5 Auburn BB 19-22

* - Home team
N - Neutral site


SBB - Super Best Bet (3 units)
BB - Best Bet (2 units)
RP - Regular Play (1 unit)

Week #19


Type of Wager: W-L (excludes “pushes”); Profit/Loss (Cumulative in parentheses)


NFL Results ATS


Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (2-1 = 66.7%; =2.7 units)
Best Bets: 2-0 = 100%; +4 units (35-21 = 62.5%; +23.8 units)
Regular Plays: 2-0 = 100%; +2 units (38-31 = 55.1%; +3.9 units)

Week #19 Totals: 4-0 = 100%; +6 units (75-53 = 58.6%; +30.4 units)

College Football Results ATS


Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 100%; 0 units (10-2 = 83.3%; +23.4 units)
Best Bets: 1-1 = 50%; -.2 units (54-36 = 60%; +28.8 units)
Regular Plays: 1-1 = 50%; -.1 units (75-45 = 62.5%: +25.5 units)

Week #19 Totals: 2-2 = 50%; -.3 units (139-83 = 62.6%; +77.7 units)

Total Combined NFL and College Football Results ATS


Super Best Bets: 0-0 = 0%; 0 units (12-3 = 80%; +26.1 units)
Best Bets: 3-1 = 75%; +3.8 units (89-57 = 61.0%; +52.6 units)
Regular Plays: 3-1 = 75%; +1.9 units (113-76 = 59.8%; +29.4 units)

Week #19 Totals: 6-2 = 75%; +5.7 units (214-136 = 61.1%; +108.1 units)


BASKETBALL ACTION



Yesterday’s Record ATS: 2-2
Cumulative Season Record ATS: 236-154


Today’s Action (for reading purposes only):

NBA

DETROIT (+5) over TORONTO*
These are two squads already just playing out the string. Neither team will be around in the spring, so things can get testy in the locker rooms. Two days before the year ended, the Raptors beat Dallas, but the Mavs didn’t have their best player. The Pistons forced 23 turnovers when they won in Canada last month. DETROIT, 98 - 97


SACRAMENTO (+9) over NEW YORK*
The homers are fresh from playing back to back in Utah and Phoenix and they had the Spurs, Lakers, and Suns before that. The Kings have had 24 hours to rest after being in Beantown. They are inexperienced, but they can board, as they out-rebounded the Suns almost two weeks ago by 28. NEW YORK, 102-100


UTAH* (-14)  over CLEVELAND
The Cleveland owner talked about the bad karma that was supposed to follow Lebron to Miami, but the bad karma stayed in the cold confines of Ohio. Sure, they have been banged up a bit, but there is just no direction on the team. The Cavs have had 48 hours to rest after facing the Lakers, but they have a look ahead tomorrow to the Denver game. UTAH, 110-88


COLLEGE HOOPS

DETROIT* (+5.5)  over BUTLER
With six days off since their cruising, narrow road triumph over the UIC Flames (and with one eye on this), Detroit grasps its chance to take out the conference strawbosses. Butler had last Sunday’s buffer with Youngstown State to work off the effects of their rout of Cleveland State, but as solid as Butler remains, the Titans are hungrier, and are capable of staging this palace coup – so long as they take care of the ball. DETROIT, 66-63.


THE CRIER/SR CREW