Monday, December 10, 2018

Local Media Hot Take: Texans always run on first down? FALSE

Written by:  LM



A few months ago, I heard Fred Faour (The Blitz) mention how he dislikes how the Texans always run on 1st Down.  If you are a Houston fan of any sport and pay attention to local media, you should know the game or how things are done.   Major  member of the media has a take, fan grabs that take, shops it to another show via calls, social media or a blog like this and VIOLA, it becomes a truth.

After Fred's take back in September, a few fans and media members repeated.  It's a very popular thing to say these days. 

I almost bought in, but to be honest, it meant nothing  because it was verbalized across the airwaves without any benchmarks or comparisons. 

It wasn't until a few weeks ago Seth Payne (MAD Radio) said  Texans always running on first down is just not true.    After Seth notated this, most of 610 personalities jumped on it.  At this point, I was not sold on Seth's point either but it did alert me to inquire about the assertion.

I reached out to Patrick Starr (Texans Google) to get the raw numbers of how much the Texans run on First Downs.  Of course Pat delivered with more than I asked.

219 rushing plays (3.77 avg)
161 passing (6.72 avg)

They are heavy passing team on 2nd and 3rd downs. 

2nd down: 111 rushes | 179 passing
3rd down: 22 rushes | 150 passing

Mathematics

I only focused on first downs






Nothing about these numbers leads me to believe the Texans are always rushing on First Downs.  The numbers do not support "Texans always run on first down". 

It's a false narrative easy to repeat "on air", it's simply not true.  If we were to actually compare the Texans numbers to the league's or even the successful teams, I'd venture to say, it's not all that different.


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